vvilld

joined 2 weeks ago
[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 4 days ago

Well, we now know for a fact that Abrego Garcia is still alive.

And it's not about him lying. Of course a piece of shit like Bukele is more than willing to lie to anyone. The point is that he is benefitting politically from this arrangement and if he doesn't uphold his end he can suffer political harm. It's not just a promise, it's a two-way deal.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 4 days ago

Bretton Woods wasn't about military protection. It was about stabilizing the global economy and monetary system. It absolutely gave the US a ton of economic influence, but it didn't have anything to do with military protection. The Soviet Union even took part in the negotiations that turned into the Bretton Woods Agreement, although they chose not to sign the treaty.

The US' military hegemony came out of NATO, the Cold War, and the Marshall Plan.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 4 days ago

Looks like I was right. He's still alive.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 49 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Yeah, it all built out of WW2. After WW2 pretty much all of Europe was in shambles. Most major cities had been bombed at least once, many far more than that. Infrastructure all across the continent was destroyed. The industrial capacity was destroyed. Armies had marched, pillaged, and destroyed first out of Germany across Europe, then back across Europe into Germany. The US was uniquely positioned as the only world power that didn't suffer massive economic devastation from the war. In fact, due to stuff like the lend-lease act and massive industrial mobilization for the war effort, the US was experiencing a massive economic boom while Europe and east Asia were in a depression.

But in the aftermath of the war the Cold War set in. The USSR and Allied powers (led by the US) drew lines in the sand and established their areas of influence. The US instituted the Marshall Plan in Europe which essentially just shotgunned money at western Europe to rebuild as much as possible as quickly as possible. This had a massive positive economic impact on western Europe, but it also ensured that so much of Europe would be dependent on American products and companies. If your rebuilt power grid was made with American parts, then anything new would have to be compatible with that, ensuring your country is a long-term customer of American products. At the same time, the US and western Europe created NATO as a military pact against the Soviet Union, which further strengthened the western alliance. Again, with the US as the only major western power with a larger and more powerful army after the war than before, the US took the leading role in NATO.

Another major factor that most people tend to overlook was the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944. This was an effort to stabilize the global economy and monetary system after WW2. It said that the US would readopt the gold standard (we had abandoned it during the war, and would later permanently abandon it in the early 70s), then every other western-aligned country would use the US dollar as the basis for their currency. Think of it like a gold-standard, but instead of gold, they used US dollars. This gave the US enormous economic influence because everybody needed US dollars to maintain their economies, and the only way to get them was to do business with the US.

This created the conditions that the US expanded and exploited over the second half of the 20th century to cement ourselves as the dominant western world power. Through colonialism and Cold War dynamics, the US and USSR forced most of the global south to pick a side, and often forced regime change when they didn't like the choice countries made.

Then the Soviet Union fell and the US was the only global superpower left remaining. Over the 90s and early 00s a lot of formerly Soviet-aligned countries hitched their wagons to the US since it was the only game left in town.

So, yes, much of the rest of the world put their eggs in the America basket, but it wasn't recently, it didn't happen all at once, and, at the time at least, there were other factors that went into those decisions.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 5 days ago

I'm talking about what the headline of the article here says.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 5 days ago (2 children)

The leaders are only leaders because the unincarcerated members of the gangs listen to them and do what they say. They only do that because they believe the gang leaders have power and influence. Part of that, now, is protection for gang members who get locked up. How long do you think those leaders are going to remain leaders when everyone knows they made a deal with Bukele that Bukele isn't living up to? Not long.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 5 days ago (4 children)

No, I think that proving one guy in CECOT has died brings into question the treatment of everyone else in CECOT, including gang members the leaders of the gang do care about.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 5 days ago (2 children)

The US government, like all governments, is comprised of individual people with varying motivations. The person asking for his return is not part of the executive branch, which is what's paying to keep people in CECOT.

A sitting Senator who is a member of the minority opposition party is asking for him to be returned. The US administration is paying the Salvadoran government to keep him there. The VP of El Salvador told Senator Van Hollen that if the US embassy asked for him to be released they would release him.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 5 days ago (6 children)

I didn't make the agreement. It's been widely reported on.

The US treasury said that an investigation into government officials and gang leaders revealed the secret negotiations. Luna [chief of the Salvadoran penal system and vice-minister of justice and public security] and Marroquin [chairman of the Social Fabric Reconstruction Unit] allegedly “led, facilitated and organized a number of secret meetings involving incarcerated gang leaders, in which known gang members were allowed to enter the prison facilities and meet with senior gang leadership”.

In addition to financial benefits for the gang members, incarcerated leaders received special treatment in the prisons, including access to mobile phones and sex workers. It said Luna also negotiated support from MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs for Bukele’s national quarantine during the Covid-19 pandemic.

It sounds like the gang leaders who negotiated with Bukele's regime are incarcerated themselves. And it's not just prisoners in CECOT who are getting better conditions. It's incarcerated gang members all over the country.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 5 days ago (2 children)

It’s not unlikely that they are just murdering the inmates

I do think that's rather unlikely. After Bukele came into power promising a massive reduction in violent crime he met with the leaders of all the major gangs in El Salvador. He asked them tor reduce violent crime in exchange for payoffs and a promise of improved conditions for prisoners. Within 2 years of that agreement violent crime in El Salvador reached the lowest point it's been in 30 years. If it comes out that prisoners in CECOT are dying, that agreement disappears and violent crime skyrockets. That would completely undermine Bukele's basis of support.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 12 points 5 days ago (4 children)

Americans are absolutely calling the shots here. That's why El Salvador has him and is keeping him: because the US government is paying them to do so.

[–] vvilld@lemmy.dbzer0.com 22 points 5 days ago (13 children)

I think he is still alive. Bukele made agreements with the leaders of all the major gangs in El Salvador to get them to reduce violent crime. In exchange he gave some money and concessions as to how prisoners would be treated. If it comes out that prisoners are dying in CECOT, the gangs are going to treat that as Bukele breaking their agreement and violent crime will shoot up.

Even if he's still alive, though, there's a 0% chance he, or anyone else Trump sends there, will ever come out of CECOT while Bukele or Trump is still in power. It would completely undermine so much about their regimes at this point. They are using CECOT as the ever present existential threat against opposition. It's supposed to be a black hole people go into and never leave. They can't let anyone out ever or it proves that people can get out. They don't want anyone to believe that is possible. They can't let anyone believe that is possible or it'll breed massive opposition in both countries.

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