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It's just speculation, but they're saying it because nobody has ever been released from CECOT. It's not unlikely that they are just murdering the inmates and pocketing the money that the United States is giving them, or not sufficiently protecting inmates from violence between other inmates.
I do think that's rather unlikely. After Bukele came into power promising a massive reduction in violent crime he met with the leaders of all the major gangs in El Salvador. He asked them tor reduce violent crime in exchange for payoffs and a promise of improved conditions for prisoners. Within 2 years of that agreement violent crime in El Salvador reached the lowest point it's been in 30 years. If it comes out that prisoners in CECOT are dying, that agreement disappears and violent crime skyrockets. That would completely undermine Bukele's basis of support.
Yes, no president has ever lied to gangs/terrorists before. Certainly no other president ever.
Well, we now know for a fact that Abrego Garcia is still alive.
And it's not about him lying. Of course a piece of shit like Bukele is more than willing to lie to anyone. The point is that he is benefitting politically from this arrangement and if he doesn't uphold his end he can suffer political harm. It's not just a promise, it's a two-way deal.