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He didn't know what he was doing for much of his first term. For his second, he'll have an instruction booklet that he just needs to follow and take credit for. Project 2025 and the recent SCOTUS immunity ruling are just 2 signs that show that a 2nd term will be so much worse.
And we know for sure Project 2025 actually speaks for the president? As much as it sounds like an agenda book for QAnon and white supremacy, Trump himself has spoken against this side of extremism (whether or not he himself can be classified as bypassing checks/courtesy). That is not to say I support Trump (I don't), but people are turning it into a game of Chicken Little, especially with an immunity ruling that didn't change anything.
If we wanted to get technical, we could technically say that a candidate promising to be peaceful becoming authoritarian while in power is a violation of campaign promises. But... who here actually punishes lying about your goals while president? Who points a finger at presidents who went against their word and says "we voted for a president who would address the envionmental/right problem, and that's not you"? Nobody. For two and a half hundred years, nobody thought to put that in place? The American people cleared out a direct path to tyranny, and now everyone is blaming everyone else.
Trump speaking out is a fair point, but there are plenty of cases where Trump has said one thing and done the exact opposite. Trump is heavily influenced by the people around him, and Project 2025 involves the recruitment of advisors so that a president would be ready on day 1. Even if Trump doesn't like the policies in there right now, there is no doubt that he'll get there one day, especially since he really does not know what he's doing.
Secondly, the immunity ruling absolutely has changed a lot. I suggest watching LegalEagle's perspective on it.
All the more reason to vote third party. The two in power can both be described this way. But nobody wants to reflect on this.