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Superbugs will kill more than 39 million people before 2050 with older people particularly at risk, according to a new global analysis.

While deaths linked to drug resistance are declining among very young children, driven by improvements in vaccination and hygiene, the study found the opposite trend for their grandparents.

By the middle of the century, 1.91 million people a year are forecast to die worldwide directly because of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) – in which bacteria evolve so that the drugs usually used to fight them no longer work – up from 1.14 million in 2021. AMR will play some role in 8.2 million deaths annually, up from 4.71 million.

The study, published in the Lancet was conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (Gram) Project and is the first global analysis of AMR trends over time.

Researchers used data from 204 countries and territories to produce estimates of deaths from 1990 to 2021, and forecasts running through to 2050.

They also found millions of deaths worldwide could be averted via better prevention of infections and improved access to healthcare, as well as the creation of new antibiotics.

The study’s author, Dr Mohsen Naghavi, at the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), said: “Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern.

“These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing,” he said.