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American here.
Keep doing what you're doing Canada. Don't play this retard's game. The ONLY thing conservatives understand is money. Hit them where it hurts. It's the only thing that'll make them sour on this traitor.
Yeah the world's doing its part, but it'd be nice if Americans did theirs.
Other than Bernie Sanders, the rest sure like to bitch a lot, but actions speak louder and they're not getting out of their couches...
American trade is nearly worth half of Canada's total GDP. something like 75~80% of total Canadian exports go to the US. if they actually retaliate in force they could be dooming their country to an economic crisis if Trump is spiteful enough. so far the Canadian tariffs have only touched about $30B worth of goods, or 7% of the total trade.
Can you ship moose ribs to Europe? Never had them, but seems like something I'd enjoy.
Bottom line is Canada can't rely on an unreliable country that literally threatens them.
It's time for the world to move away from working with the U.S. We've shown we aren't trustworthy. Canada needs to increase trade to other countries to compensate.
sounds nice in theory but i don't think people realize just how integrated their economy is to the US
entire industries are completely dependent on US trade. they traded large swathes of their economic autonomy away for easy access to the US market. prosperity was deemed more important than sovereignty
it's a decision that was decades in the making and it will likely take decades to reverse.
and if we're being honest it shouldn't have exactly taken Trump to make Canada realize the US acts in its own interests. Look at NAFTA signed by Bill Clinton. We pressured Canada into accepting a deal that forced them to maintain a certain level of oil export to the US even if there were domestic shortages.
It's not the type of agreement equal parties or allies come to. It's a relationship of domination. Always has been
It's exactly that reason why we need to respond forcefully and not get bullied. We are incredibly dependent on reliable, good faith trade. If we let them jerk us around, we get all the disadvantages and incredible uncertainty.
We have to stand up to the bully's demand for lunch money now or we'll never be rid of him.
What would you consider a sufficiently forceful response?
So far Canada has taxed something like 10% of American exports into Canada with threats to increase that if Trump does not remove the initial tariffs.
Trump is threatening to tax all Canadian exports into US. And 80% of Canadian exports go to the US.
To summarize: US put a tariff on roughly 80% of all Canadian exports (there's nuance here, like a few exclusions and certain goods have lower tariffs like oil)
Canada retaliated by putting a tariff on a little less than 1% of all American exports
Canada has a knob they can twist that goes up all the way to 10~12% of American exports. They can't go any higher than that.
They've decided to start very small, even though Trump is threatening virtually everything.
The risk is if you go too high, Trump may increase his tariffs from 25% to a higher number. Amplifying the economic pain and potentially triggering an immediate recession with millions of job losses and the collapse of various industries.
So what's the correct number? How do you stand up to a bully but also avoid an economic crisis?
It's a very dangerous game and I do not envy your new banker PM. That's why Trudaeu was so happy when he was leaving with his chair lol.
Mexico is taking a more muted response. They are in an even worse position.
None of the choices here are good, but clearly bending over and letting Trump fuck everyone is worse than the alternatives. China is also not going to take this lying down and they have a lot of potential for damaging Trump because so much of the USA's manufacturing is outsourced there and they can more easily compensate with other partners than Canada can. If Canada, China and Mexico stick to their guns, together, long enough for the American people to do something about this idiot, then things can still work out.
While true, the Canadian government has already announced grants and loans to help Canadian companies restructure their supply chains away from the US. It's a start. While the legal framework exists, Canadian companies haven't yet had a reason to take advantage of new free trade agreements with the EU and the Asia Pacific. Now they do.
Also, in terms of numbers: about 25% of Canadian GDP is based on US trade; a little lower than the number you quoted, still too high, I'd say. Hopefully, the Canadian economies' smaller size will prove agile enough for the transition. I've also seen it suggested that the hit to the Canadian economy from Trump's attacks could be offset by removing internal trade barriers so that Canada can trade more efficiently with itself. This has been a huge shot in the arm for that project.
20% of US exports go to the EU, 18% go to Canada, 17% to Mexico, and less than 10% to China. Similarly, about 70% of US imports come from those same markets. This will be devastating for everyone, the US included. It won't be the 'short period of transition' the bloated diet coke goblin imagines. World trade patterns and supply chains will literally be upended.
Canada has already fixed and removed almost all of the interprovincial barriers - so we will notice it more in coming months
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12595 US-Canada trade amounts to $920B
Canadian GDP roughly $2.1T
Or roughly equivalent to ~40% of GDP depending on the year
it will be painful for US but whatever US feels, Canada & Mexico will feel 3x worse (and that number can go up 10x worse if they retaliate)
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-25-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-will-be-a-blow-to-all-3-economies/
go to figure 1. us economy might slow ~0.3%. canada & mexico go into recession. -3% easy with retaliation
note the tariffs are stupid and reckless and cruel and i don't support them at all. im just adding context because i did not realize how fucked Mexico & Canada were until I looked into it
Yes, but the $920b you're quoting is bilateral. That's the total value of the trade relationship in goods. $450b is the value of Canada's exports to the US, with the remainder representing US exports to Canada.
I have also seen the 3% figure for Canada, and don't dispute that. The Atlanta fed is also predicting around the same for the US. Don't forget, the US is attacking all of its trade partners at once, not just Canada.
What are you taking issue with? I said sky is blue and you say "yes you're right but the grass is green".
Canadian trade with America- of which both imports and exports are counted, as you yourself stated- represents a value which is roughly 43% of Canadian GDP.
The US may suffer more than the 0.3% in an overall sense because of trade war with other countries, OK. But the impacts from these specific tariffs- the topic of the conversation- are expected to be -0.3% for US and -3% for Canada & Mexico.
I was pointing out 2 things
A) Canada (and Mexico) are relatively small economies that have become increasingly dependent on US trade and foreign investment.
B) Because of this, they are going to experience a much worse fallout from a trade war- about an order of magnitude.
Mexican & Canadian trade combined don't even reach 4% of US GDP. They simply do not have the leverage to hurt the US in the same way US can hurt them.
Am I making the argument Trump is correct in this decision-making? No he's a fascist who wants to hurt foreigners just as much as he wants to hurt Americans.
Am I making the argument America is going to be immune from trade wars? No, it's gonna fuck all of us. And if we continue to escalate trade war with China and EU we will start seeing much worse effects.
Canada’s total exports are about 35% of total GDP. So that puts US exports at somewhere around 24% of GDP. Pretty high but then if we exclude oil and gas and potash exports it’s a much, much smaller number. So small in fact that we would probably replace those exports within 12 months.
I wonder if anyone else other than the US wants some oil, natural gas, or potash? And yes I know we currently lack pipeline capacity but at this point I’d be willing to let the government finance it all to move oil and gas to the east coast.
I really think Americans over played their hand.
You're not alone! It looks like investors also think they overplayed their hand, judging by the reaction of the markets. Terrible combination of Trumps silky smooth brain and US exceptionalism.
Also, not the first time I've seen the 40% GDP figure make an appearance. Must be doing its rounds on US propaganda networks.
4/5ths of a country's exports do not get rerouted in 12 months.
i feel like the most likely outcome is that Canada (and Mexico) end up playing ball with Trump once he feels he did enough of whatever stupid PR stunt he needs to do and ameliorates a bit
Canada is not gonna get a better market for its goods than the largest economy in the world that speaks the same language and has had decades of integration. point blank isn't happening
right now there's a wave of nationalism sweeping canada (maybe that was trump's goal- encourage populism) but reality sets in eventually and the banking class will do whatever they have to do to keep those economic indicators up
You can feel any way you wish but frankly it will be political suicide for anyone who tries to walk back the current stance against the US. Sometimes you have to fire customers.
the current stance is fairly mild. Canada taxing something like 10% of American imports (which represents less than 1% of total American exports) when Trump is threatening 80% of all Canadian exports is not the aggressive retaliation the rhetoric would have you believe
i knew a guy with a cleaning business. it grew to a fairly large size (roughly ~30 employees with an office and secretaries, etc) over the course of a few years, although about 80% of the revenue came from one client. he eventually lost that client and the business had to fire most of its staff. he had to sell two properties he owned to pay off debt he had accumulated- he was spending money at a rate that was not sustainable because he assumed that money would always come in at the same rate.
he ended up giving up and sold the business to a couple of outside guys. those guys hired a sales team and diversified the business and now it's doing great- grew literally 10x bigger than it was under original owner. but it took years.
moral of the story? when all your eggs are in one basket, you are very vulnerable.
you also have to consider that America is not only a customer, but a vendor too. Tariffs placed on American imports will lead to more tariffs being placed on Canadian imports. You not only lose sales but a source of goods. i really think most people in this thread do not fully recognize the severity of Canada's position
It will also be political suicide to trigger a historic recession. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. I feel bad for the new banker PM. He's essentially a political lamb to the slaughter. Trudeau is getting out at the right time- his legacy will remain intact.