this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2023
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WASHINGTON, July 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that while Ukraine has reconquered half the territory that Russia initially seized in its invasion, Kyiv faced a "a very hard fight" to win back more.

"It’s already taken back about 50% of what was initially seized," Blinken said in an interview to CNN on Sunday.

"These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough," he said, adding: "It will not play out over the next week or two. We’re still looking I think at several months."

Hopes that Ukraine could quickly clear Moscow's forces from its territory following the launch of a summer counteroffensive are fading as Kyiv's troops struggle to breach heavily entrenched Russian positions in the country's south and east.

Late last month President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was quoted as saying that progress against Russian forces was "slower than desired" but that Kyiv would not be pressured into speeding it up.

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[–] redtea@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 1 year ago

I remember reading a Mearsheimer article about the problem with offensives. Whoever defends, traditionally has a 3:1 advantage by virtue of staying still. But in a war like this, that can change from day to day or month to month. So while Ukraine doesn't seem to be doing much of significance in its counter-offensive, I agree that Russia will have a hard time when it goes on the offensive again.

Still, the problem for Ukraine seems to be its size in comparison tp Russia. Going by the same article, Russia has a 5:1 to 10:1 artillery advantage and a 2:1 casualty rate in its favour. The longer the war, the greater Russia's advantage, and every offensive and counter-offensive contributes to that advantage. What is 2:1 today will become 3:1, 4:1, etc, as the toll will always be worse for Ukraine, unless something drastic changes, which would come as a surprise if it happens.

As you say elsewhere, it's all just a massive waste of lives. The sooner the decision-makers realise that and negotiate for peace, the better.

I wouldn’t rule that out with the cluster munitions which could easily slow them down.

Can't say that would enjoy walking into that kind of maelstrom.