this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2024
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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China’s EV sales set to overtake traditional cars years ahead of west | Volumes forecast to rise 20% next year, smashing international projections and Beijing’s official targets (www.ft.com)
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[–] Tobberone@lemm.ee 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Well, we better be, because if the demand for oil isn't high enough to keep the oil infrastructure up and running, the flip will be sudden, swift and without pardon. Norway is already at 90+% of new cars EV. How long will the gas stations be able to survive? On the day the last one dies, I want to be driving an electric car.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The first big thing to go will be refineries. They can only lower production by 20% of capacity. The number of refineries is rather low.

[–] Tobberone@lemm.ee 2 points 23 hours ago

How interesting. And it seems it has already begun:

According to forecasts by Commodity Insights, refinery utilization rates will drop from around 84% in 2024 to 81% in 2027 as refiners adjust to a weaker margin environment, accelerating closures through 2029-2030.

Close to 1 million b/d could be shuttered over 2029-2030, according to Commodity Insights forecasts, more than double the 473,000 b/d after the financial crisis (2007-2009) and well above the 656,000 b/d closed due to Covid-19 pressures (2019-2021).

Germany and France, meanwhile, are another million electric cars not favouring the oil companies. Just China and Europe and already that is 15% of world demand for gas cars.

Heavy transport and farming will take longer, but the push for electrification in transport is real.