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Who cares honestly...the carrot man is just putting Canada vs Mexico like they do with poor vs not so poor. Focus on the problem, trump
It's telling you say this now and not when Trudeau started it....
There was/is a three way trade deal, and before Trump's even in office he was openly saying US and Canada can just drop Mexico...
That's incredibly fucked when the real move is for Canada and Mexico to lock arms and force trump to the table.
They're the only land border, and a key piece in disguising products as "made in America".
Still, this basically feels like a speed-run of losing the Prisoner's dilemma.
This is Mexico standing up for itself.
What Trudeau did was act like a biggity bitch and played right into Trump's hands.
If America really shuts the border down completely, Mexico is the real winner. The cartels are only there to smuggle into America, and the guns come back over in exchange for drugs. Also when Obama was doing it...
Stop the flow of drugs and guns across the border, and the cartels will go somewhere else where the action is.
Like, straight up. Mexico has a win/win here, and a president willing to call Trump's bluff
I hate to say it, because it's gross... But it's probably the pragmatic move for Canada to attempt a bilateral agreement with Trump.
His political base is fueled by trashing Mexico. Build a wall. Mexicans are taking my job. Etc etc. Trump and his supporters will absolutely cut off their noses to spite their face with Mexico.
But, they're pretty apathetic towards Canada.
It isn't pragmatic for Canada to lash itself to Mexico under these circumstances. Ultimately, it's the government of Canada's responsibility to act in the best interests of Canadians. Given the circumstances, that's probably avoiding the situation.
I'd argue the opposite. America needs Mexico, we don't need Canada.
Trudeau could have easily allied with Mexico and likely could have used shipping lanes to bypass America and been fine.
But Canada alone is fucked. And they publicly turned against Mexico and now have to agree to Trump's demands, and we all know they'll be ridiculous.
For a prison analogy, Canada just gave their Peanut Butter and Jelly away without a fight, and Mexico pulled out a shiv when Trump looked at them. trump is a bully and will focus on the easy lick that showed weakness and fear of confrontation.
I swear to God for as much shit as people give when you get a psychology degree, it's insanely frustrating when world leaders don't know the shit everyone learns in highschool from the football coach.
I think what you said makes a lot of sense when you're dealing with a rational actor, and if your facts were right.
Canada is the USAs largest trading partner. Full stop. #1. Canada's retaliatory tariff stick is the largest club that any nation on Earth has to hit back with. Bigger than China's by a factor of THREE.
Secondly, it's irrelevant because Trump isn't a rational actor and it's all gut feel and he hates Mexicans.
I understand why you'd think that the USA "needs" Mexico but not Canada... But that's not right. The USA "needs" illegal immigrants to work for pennies on the dollar, if it "needs" anything... And again he and his base will cut off their noses to spite their face. The exact thing that the USA economy benefits from the most is the exact thing he and his base wants to line up against.
You don't need to do any fancy psychology to understand Trump. He's a hateful spiteful bully with no comprehension of anything who melts like butter when praised.
I guess only time will tell, but I disagree with your assessment and that's why: I think you misunderstand the trading relationships that the USA has in North America and I think you're underestimating how much of his behaviour is driven by primal forces rather than any rational plan.
And the vast amount is stuff where America acts as the middle man...
A full 1/3 of it is fossil fuels while we turn around and keep breaking production records and exporting our own.
They also get cheap manufactured good from America.
Hence:
They need to do it anyway, climate change isn't going anywhere, and artic shipping is already exploding:
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/canada-arctic-shipping-part2/
The fastest path from Asia to Europe is that route along Canada's northern border. And it gets easier every year.
It would be faster than the Panama canal despite what it looks like on a flat map.
That's a really interesting interpretation of trade
Interesting, I don't follow politics for the most part but it's being shoved in my face by overly loud individuals so I'm playing a bit of the catch-up game on all the bs they all keep doing.
Thanks for the extra info