this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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How unusual the current post-El Niño warmth is: Global temperatures rose earlier and have potentially remained elevated longer than in any prior El Niño event since at least 1940. (www.theclimatebrink.com)
submitted 1 month ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Useful analysis, plots do suggest that there's an anomaly beyond the usual pattern, but maybe the underlying trend fit is too simple, missing factors such as the post-covid spike due to shipping sulphate, also the 11yr solar cycle (we're near a peak). Also worth checking whether the anomaly is concentrated in one region - as 24 months is a short timescale for global averaging.