this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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They have enough cash reserves to last 3 years without any income. But 15% of income is Google free. If Google disappears, they will surely get an income hit, but someone else will gladly pay some price for that position, perhaps half of what Google is paying. People are really blowing this out of proportion.
I think you're massively downplaying how much of a hit this will be.
Let's say you make $100k/year. Think about the lifestyle it allows. You've just been informed that it's now going part time, and you'll only be making $15k/year. How far does that get you?
Now, you're expecting someone else to pay for that advertising spot, so it won't be that bad. But who is even eligible? Microsoft's Bing is the obvious answer, and probably DDG. The rest of the default search engines aren't even general web searches.
Do you really think that either of them are going to pay any significant amount to be the default? Especially when most people are going to change it back to Google anyway, since these are automatically people willing to change to a different browser?
Sure, they might be willing to pay something. But it won't be anything close to what they had before.
I can see Bing doing it. And Google is so far gone that it would probably be an improvement
Both Bing and Yahoo have outbid Google in certain countries in the past. There's a new wave of AI powered startups with tons of venture capital. I could imagine them making sizable bids.
But I get what you mean. The main difference to your scenario is: search money will definitely not totally disappear, Mozilla has huge savings, and they can just finally pivot and focus on making a real premium offer that people would want to pay for.