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Here's where it falls apart, right here:
Some of the BRICS countries have wildly volatile currencies either because of governments "printing money" to devalue their currency for economic stimulus for exports or to pay down debts. Alternatively straight up currency manipulation by the sovereign states issuing them. I would think this makes settling transactions in these local currencies a big risk for commerce. You don't know if the value of the currency you accept tomorrow will be worth what it is today. These are reasons GBP, Euro, and USD are so valuable as currencies, they generally have pretty consistent values.
I suspect they’re- Russia- trying to pull a fast one, and china is okay because it won’t hurt them.
Maybe this gives Russians access to reserve currencies that are harder than the ruble.
China is ok with it because they will insist the Renminbi be used as the brics reserve currency.
I mean Russia is back to bartering for goods the Ruble is struggling so hard.
I imagine the the reason China is ok with it is cause they view Russia as collateral that they can claim for their cheap labor force and supplies when they try to push their own economy out of so much manufacturing.
Similar to what they are doing in Africa but with a closer contract to push on since it's closer and easier to control.
How will this be any worse on BRICS Clear than it currently is on Swift ?
Lets say you're Egypt selling cotton to Russia. BRICS Clear is pushing local currencies. So Russia wants to pay for the Egyptian cotton in Russian Rubles. Lets say the amount of Rubles would buy 10,000 barrels of crude oil at the time of settlement. Russia is currently in economic dire straights and the currency value is dropping. When Egypt wants to spend its Rubles, if it can find a country willing to take them, it could only buy 5,000 barrels of crude oil.
How eager will Egypt be to settle another transaction in BRICS Clear when the value can evaporate. This is way international trade wants to settle in stable currencies.
Right, but there ways to mitigate that, without relying on the dollar and although they are not insignificant, they’ve surely considered them - the political benefits are huge for them.
Sure, you can rely on other stable currencies like Euros or GBP. Alternatively you can rely on gold, but if you have the ability to trade your own currency to someone willing to accept it and give you sufficient gold, and that you can produce that gold on demand to buyers, you don't really need a fiat currency except to facilitate transactions easier. The problem is these countries aren't backing their currency with gold (or other precious metals).
The tradeoff to gold backing is that you can't grow your economy either. The amount of currency in circulation will always be limited by the ratio of gold you're backing your currency with. This is why the USA abandoned the gold standard, and it was the right decisions. Before doing this, if you wanted to borrow money, you had to FIND someone with money that would be willing to lend it. There were instances of limits in growth simply because all the folks that held the vast majority of the wealth (and thereby gold backed currency) weren't lending it, so loans couldn't occur in volume.
China would love for RMB to become a default reserve currency. There are strong accusations that China is a currency manipulator though. I'm not educated enough on the topic to have an opinion on it. However, countries choosing it as a reserve currency may be left holding the bag.
Awesome info thank you
All local currencies? Yeah, that would hamstring it a bit. I was kind of assuming it would be primarily RMB.
Edit: Skimming the declaration, they emphasised local currencies a lot. It's very light on details as to how, though, so basically I'll believe an n-currency international market when I see it.
Didn't the Euro even start as being pegged to the dollar at 1:1 to stabilize it in the beginning? Or am I misremembering?
No, not the euro, but China did peg the Yuan to the dollar for years to ensure their exports remained cheap.
https://cdn.howmuch.net/articles/Rise-and-Fall-of-the-USD-688d.jpg
Feel free to post the alternate currency that was more stable for the history you're showing. I'd wait, but I'd die waiting.