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I agree with you, nuclear response would make things very difficult with China and their allies, but there's plenty of traditional firepower available directed to Russia if things escalate to that point and should Russia attack with nukes I don't think they'll have a lot of support for their actions from the east. And triggering nuclear response would likely end up in a MAD scenario which is something I think (and hope) no one really wants to see trough.
But that still leaves a pretty big field to work with traditional ammunition and a skilled pilot from Sweden could still reach Moscow in 20 minutes or so to turn multiple military targets within the city into a rubble. And there's plenty of airfields closer than Stockholm with equally capable fighter jets. For the ground force, Finns and Estonians could at least in theory reach Moscow in 10-12 hours since majority of troops defending it are already down on some field in Ukraine and our artillery forces move pretty damn fast.
The amount of destruction Russia could cause is of course still an enormous humanitarian crisis, but even if they could turn Kiyv to wasteland (and kill millions while doing it), it still wouldn't change the outcome of full Nato response without any bullshit politics limiting on actions if anyone is allowed to strike on the Russian soil.
Agree. Interesting points.