this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2024
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The crime stats are heavily skewed as undocumented persons are significantly less likely to involve the police.
Large groups of people are pretty predictable. The actual crime rates are probably much closer to the equivalent crime rates of the cities and neighborhoods that align to with their own economic status i.e class and poverty are the best predictors of crime rates, not citizenship, or lack thereof.
This isn't an argument for, or against, any immigration policy. It's an argument against using flawed statistics.
Dollar for dollar, hedge fund managers, bankers, CEOs and such like are far more prolific thieves than those in poverty.
(It’s kinda how they got wealthy…)
Yeah, I don't disagree.
But again, that has nothing to do with what's been discussed here.
For starters, this is about violent crime and it's not about the inherent criminality of any group of people.
It's about stats and why this particular statistic is critically flawed, and bogus.
Incorrect, wage theft is the most common committed crime if we're talking about 'counts of crime' instead of just reporting.
Uh....what... incorrect...?
This entire thread was spawned from someone posting a statistic relating to violent crime rates amongst different population groups.
Financial crimes, wage theft, jaywalking, or any other criminal act you can think of, that isn't categorized as a "violent crime", is irrelevant when the discussion is about one specific flawed violent crime statistic....
You right, I lost track
Ok, but putting this from another standpoint, while undocumented folks may be less likely to involve police for crimes committed against them, others are not so disincentivized. If these immigrants were, as the GOP likes to point out, criminals, you would expect higher crime rates reported by citizens. However, that’s not the case, and the crime that conservatives care about is only against them. They don’t care about undocumented immigrant crime against other undocumented immigrants.
There's a lot of assumptions here.
Significant isn't specific. A specific number would give us an idea if the rate of crime committed by undocumented persons exceeds, meets, or continues to fall short of the other two groups.
Next, you're assuming that the victims of violent crimes by undocumented workers are other undocumented workers. This, to some degree makes sense. But it's not 100%.
Next, poverty in of itself isn't sufficient to predict rates of crime. Crime is a choice taken when there aren't other avenues available. Arguably, the reasons undocumented peoples move here is because their prospects are better here. That is to say, they chose to leave their people to come here instead of staying there and commiting crime. This isn't, obviously, specific. But it's a factor you didn't consider.
Finally, what do you mean by class? There's a lot of usages.
This isn't an argument to say you are wrong. It's an argument that you have been specific or open to other factors.
Of course it's not specific, which is the inherent problem with these stats. Crimes that are not reported, cannot be factored into the crime rates.
But you rarely see this amount of skepticism when people point out how rapes and sexual assaults are also significantly underreported.
In both instances you have victim groups who less likely to go to the police and report the crimes.
I am not saying poor people are intrinsically more deviant, or criminal in nature. Many factors play into the increased crime rates of people in poverty, including but not limited to, desperation and over policing.
I also never said that undocumented migrants couldn't have crime rates that trend below national averages. I said that the notion that their crime rates were half the national average was bogus, for reasons that you seem to acknowledge as well.
My point wasn't to provide the framework for calculating the actual rates, or more approximate estimations, because frankly I don't have that skill set. But then again, no ideas I laid out in these comments originated from me either. These are all well known problems with that bogus stat.
Either people think disinformation, or "fake news", is bad, or they don't. They can't cry and scream about it when MAGA people use it, and then turn around and use it they when they feel it's politically expedient.
I was not defending the stats. I was critiquing your analysis and the conclusion you reached.
Real, scientifically backed, crime stats actually say the exact opposite of your claim. It turns out cops are racist as fuck, and are so much more likely to interact with and cause trouble for people of color whenever the opportunity presents itself that it’s not even a question. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2020/05/veil-darkness-reduces-racial-bias-traffic-stops
What you're talking about has exactly nothing to do what's being discussed here....
Except for the possibility that the racist reputation of police in America may contribute to the reluctance of the undocumented persons to report when that they've been a victim of a crime...
Wouldn't that argument count more towards the victim of a crime than the perpetrator?
Why would someone not involve police when the offender is an undocumented immigrant?
Keep in mind, the statistic only includes felonies.
You're assuming that undocumented persons are evenly dispersed amongst the country, and in every community, when they're not.
While you'll find undocumented persons all over the country, like any other group, there are areas of heavy concentration that account for the majority of population. And in those areas, they tend to form communities around each other.
So if the vast majority of them live within communities that comprise heavily of other undocumented migrants, those crimes that are between two and undocumented persons, are significantly less likely to be brought attention of American law enforcement.
I'm not saying never, but that is a common enough occurrence to skew those stats and make them disingenuous at best.
Again, nothing new to what I'm saying here...
You are just... so terrible at understanding statistics it's hilarious. Thanks for the laugh.
Really?
So you disagree with my broad strokes explainer on undocumented population distribution?
Or do you disagree with my assertion that most perpetrators of crime victimize people in their same community?
When your entire premise is wrong you don't get to claim minor victories. They do not sum up to you being correct if you still get the wrong answer with the correct variables. You've shown your work but the answer is still wrong. Do better.
Whew! For a split second you had me wondering whether or not you were completely full of shit, thanks for clearing that up.
So... You don't disagree that the majority of the undocumented migrant population reside within communities that have large numbers of other undocumented persons.
And you don't disagree that most perpetrators of crime victimize people within their same communities...
You just believe that undocumented persons report crimes to law enforcement at the same rates as legal residents and citizens...?
I take it you also believe the reported rates of rapes and sexual assaults to be accurate as well?
Well, if you do, let me be the first to tell you that rapes and sexual assaults are also underreported at statistically significant rates.
Do you say the same thing when stats are used to demonize immigrants? You apply the same level of skepticism?
Of course.... Why wouldn't I?
Wait...Do you believe spreading bad information, or fake news, is justified if it's for something you believe in?
And it's not skepticism, it's a known flaw in that bogus stat. It's not like I'm breaking news here.
I'm sure the documented immigrant data is more complete. So my point still stands
No it doesn't
lol sounds like the responses we get from the Trump campaign.
"naw fuck facts"
American Citizens are more criminally violent than immigrants of any kind.
Stop looking for scapegoats
edit: keep downvoting me instead of proving me wrong, you are just strengthening my argument
It's just as detailed of a reply as I felt your comment was worth.
Your point was not suddenly made valid by some unrelated thing you threw in.
That is an interesting way of saying you don't have a valid retort.
What do you mean "threw in"? 😂
Look at the chart that I originally commented... I didn't go back and change the image file to make myself right 😆
Are you one of those violent Americans? Maybe we should deport you back to where your ancestors came from
Yawn
That was quick.
You managed to jump from accusing me of being anti-immigrant, to you yourself demanding a final solution, all in the same comment thread.
yeah if you actually think I believe that you are more dense than I previously thought. are you unable to think objectively?
Sometimes people say things they dont mean to make a point. are you fucking 12?
Apparently I am, but maybe you can help!
Please, help educate me on when is it appropriate to advocate for genocide. When is calling for genocide just a rhetorical device, and when is like actually "bad"?
If I'm calling for genocide simply as a rhetorical device, can I also call the other people vermin as well? You know, for enhanced rhetorical value.
When did I advocate for genocide? You are putting a lot of words in my mouth and quickly building up a straw man for yourself to argue with.
Your type really need to go study epistemology and basic logic. Almost every word out of your mouth is filled with logical fallacies.
I want you deported to the nation of your ancestors. I am a nonviolent person who owns firearms purely for defense
So you just threatened to eradicate me and my "kind", whoever that is. I see.
Don't put words in my mouth. I am non-violent, I have never even laid my hands on another human in my 35 years of life. I own firearms for defense only.
I want to have you deported to the nation of your ancestors
That certainly sounds like a threat.
oh my god go back to reddit if you want to play the victim card. find your echo chamber and safe space You still can't argue the points, but instead come at me personally.
Why are Republicans so obsessed about immigrant crime when they commit less than us??? We would literally dilute the violence per-capita by increasing immigration.
You heard talking points that jive with your existing feelings about hispanic people and now you have blinders on. Why are people able to live like that? how do you lie to yourself?
When did I come at you personally?
The only thing I've said is that the one comment you made didn't make your previous argument suddenly valid. And implied that your vitriol was boring.
The rest of the things you seem to have assumed about me - making personal attacks, etc - appear to be pretty wild assumptions.