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Russia lacks 'numbers for strategic breakthrough' in Ukraine: NATO
(www.euronews.com)
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this post was submitted on 17 May 2024
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I dont think its unreasonable to assume that the Russian military command genuinely believed the they were a lot stronger than they actually were when this started. Just based on what news I've been following, it seems like its very common for Russian officers to lie to their superiors about how strong their units are for the sake of looking good.
Not a Russia simp, I've been watching this war with some interest, and I've got a friend whose only hobby at this point is following this war.
If you look at how much Russian military ops have changed across almost every consideration over the course of the war, it's really a stark difference between where they are today and where they were two years ago. It's pretty clear Russia totally bunglefucked the opening maneuvers in the war. They've had to learn a lot of lessons and learn them hard, and they're still learning them, but they are learning. I definitely think that Russia really did expect this was going to be a cakewalk, and that they were going to force Kiev into negotiations or else kill Zelenskyy in the first week. I can't be 100% sure what the Russian military leadership was expecting, but I seriously doubt it was this.
They're learning a lot at the top level but the bottom level are more untrained than they have ever been. most new soldiers are given a week of "training" a rusty old rifle with and handful of ammunition and are sent to the front.
Their professional army is gone.
Their tank stocks are severely depleted
They can't fly their air force anywhere near the front for fear of it being shot down.
Their losses in the last couple weeks carving about 10 square km of kharkiv have been dizzying. Ukraine was reporting almost 1600 russians removed from the battlefield the other day and that was just for that day
I feel it's been common knowledge since after the first month of the war that Russia has miscalculated significantly. They sent in paratroopers, some of the most time consuming and most expensive soldiers to train, into Kyiv where they were summarily killed or captured with no support. Other units ran out of ammo and fuel, with soldiers indicating they weren't expecting to invade.
Every day this war lasts is a spit in the face to Putin and his shitty planning.
My buddy is on the side of the Russians in all this (we've agreed to disagree) and even he admits that the Hostomel airport wasn't anything else but a disaster. But it did give us one of the funniest moments in the whole war (so far), when a war journalist approached a Russian soldier to ask when he thought the Russians would be arriving.
Just curious, what the heck does your good friend say to justify the Russian invasion? (Edit: apparent stroke when I first wrote this)
So, he feels that the Nazi gangs in East Ukraine were engaging in ethnic cleansing against Russian speakers / Russian nationals that was more or less state sanctioned by the state showing they weren't interested in doing anything about it. He fully believes Russia's stated purpose in all this is to seize control of East Ukraine in order to stop the Nazis.
Imo, there's clear enough evidence that there's a Nazi problem in Ukraine. What isn't clear to me is why that's a reason for Russia to expand its territory (spoiler alert: it's an excuse, obviously. Russia also has a Nazi problem, like a lot of other countries. The northern hemisphere is working through some shit ATM.)
Russian officer: See that tank we have 15 more in storage.
Russian general: can I see them?
RO: ah well you see there are logistical concerns and we have to make an appointment with the guy.....
Russia isn't part of NATO. Why is NATO contradicting itself with a narrative that Putin is out to conquer Europe, bring back the USSR, and claim here, it is too weak to do so on this front?
Last time I checked, Ukraine was in fact part of Europe. It’s a bit strange, I know. So with that, maybe attacking Ukraine (again, part of Europe) is attacking Europe. Oh, and that answer should answer your whole “and is trying to bring back the USSR” piece of your question. If you’re gonna simp for Putin at least just own up to an unproved attack and a land grab, no need to dance around like it makes you morally superior.
Paying attention to the quote I have of your statement
Bad news, I’m not the person you’re quoting. I’m assuming your native tongue is Russian. Because you’re either very pro-Russia, or your tongue is at least in Putin’s asshole.
Intelligence about state capabilities come, first and foremost, from the state itself.
What are you confused about here? That foreign intelligence services believed Russian assessments of its own capabilities?
Yes, the Russian grossly overestimated their capabilities. Yes, many foreign analysts agreed that the Russian military was powerful.
This is ended up being less the case. But that doesn’t mean the Russian military isn’t dangerous or is completely incompetent and incapable of change.
What’s your point?
Probably better not to waste your time "debating" them, their goal is only to spread misinformation, and they won't argue in good faith.
Better to just tag them as "shill," downvote, and move on.
I like to provide links that prove when people are spouting bullshit so anyone who is less informed that stumbles upon the argument can see how blatantly wrong they are. I notice this guy got awful quiet once I proved Russian state media says insane threatening shit on the regular.
I'm sure that's helpful. It's interesting to think that while the Kremlin's disinformation campaigns do trick a lot of people, they also end up educating a lot of people.
I respectfully disagree.
I take part in conversations not for their benefit, necessarily, but observers’ benefit. And one of the most effective ways of fighting propaganda is to shine a light on it.
If you just delete every dissenting worldview without engaging, then it runs the risk of making the other positions more legitimate to others watching but not engaging, or gives fodder to the ideas that “we” in the more open parts of the world are just as bad as authoritarians at silencing dissent, which isn’t usually true.
I’d agree if the other poster was only spamming ad hom attacks all over, but there’s enough logic laced in there that I find it’s worth discussing and trying to understand, if only to better understand where Russian disinformation is.
Fair enough, well said.
It’s possible to have aspirations beyond what your current capabilities are. Look at Benito Mussolini’s entire military history. Russian state media regularly makes claims that they will reconquer the Baltics and Poland. They even said they would nuke the North Sea to destroy Britain with a tidal wave. Are we supposed to just ignore what they say?
I am going to make a bet you can't back up your statements. NATO is too stupid to figure out the military strength of Russia and takes their word for it, instead?
It’s not hard to find if you take your head out of the sand.
Here’s one
Here’s the nuclear tsunami threat
Julia Davis is a good follow. She highlights the crazy shit that gets said on Russian state media.
Because Russia has been gradually conquering territory, not all at once. They create puppet states and take over land, then regroup and rebuild before attacking again. There's a clear pattern of this with Georgia, Crimea, and now the whole of Ukraine. Each time prior, the international community wagged its finger and slapped sanctions. It's generally accepted now that enough is enough, and it ends here.
It certainly doesn't help either that Russia has been funding far right parties throughout the West who try to lift sanctions against Russia.
Because Putin trying and failing still results in genocide and millions dead, ya goof. A pyrrhic victory for the people trying to defend their home and defend their neighbors and loved ones is a helluva lot worse than if Russia never fucked with them in the first place.
Ah yes, the narrative NATO has been skilfully spreading via... checks notes ... Russian state TV...
What their actions and intentions have been, and what they are actually capable of, are two different things. There is nothing contradictory here.
geography. The current borders of Russia dont have enough natural barriers to secure from land invasion with their troop level. if they could expand to reach more natural barriers then they can defend the remaining barriers. this strategy hasnt changed in ages. its becoming more obvious that russia cant achieve this with what they currently have on their own. if say north korea and/or china and others pitch in, the math changes.