this post was submitted on 10 Jul 2023
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I think it's more realistic than people think. The Digital Markets Act in the EU is likely why Threads is ActivityPub, and Reddit is (potentially) affected by it too: https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/digital-markets-act-ensuring-fair-and-open-digital-markets_en
Let me quickly quote selected sections of the act itself:
Simply:
You need to allow third-party apps free of charge
You must publish your API publicly
Failure to comply causes:
Initial fine of up to 10% of the company’s total worldwide annual turnover (or up to 20% in the event of repeated infringements)
Daily fine of up to 5% of the average daily turnover
Systemic infringements can cause the EU to break up the company entirely
The law has teeth. It could be I'm misunderstanding some nuances of the text, but this part seems pretty cut and dry from my perspective (I am not a legal expert):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpersonal_communication
If deemed an internet gatekeeper, Reddit would need to allow interoperability free of charge with all of their "interpersonal communications services" (e.g. Reddit + chat + modmail + etc.) on any kind of third-party app that wants to support it. (Which makes recent decisions even more baffling.)
From a cynical perspective, Reddit switching to ActivityPub would also work to remove a barrier between Reddit and Lemmy. If Reddit thinks they can out-compete Lemmy from a UX perspective, reversing course and going more open by embracing ActivityPub would bring traffic back to where they can monetize it. If Reddit's UX is better, people will be more likely to engage on Reddit than Lemmy, and thus Reddit wouldn't lose people.
Of course, there are 2 major issues with this:
Reddit is terrible at UX and is actively getting worse
Spez is a fuckwad who wants to be Elon without realizing he and Elon are about to be royally fucked by the EU next year when this starts to really take effect
That's sort of where I was going I guess. Now Meta are involved it's a buzzword.