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I mean, no, we really can't. There's not enough data available (that I'm willing to search for) to say for absolutely sure that excess deaths has increased and will stay high, but even just the snapshot you provided here shows that it's slightly lower in January, and massively higher the rest of the year. Maybe the May 2023 data shows that the numbers are evening out compared to 2016-2019, but the one year we actually get to see shows way more excess deaths over the course of a year compared to before. You can't just look at the most recent month, that's not how yearly trends and averages work.
You won't have much of an argument that the numbers are going back to "normal" until you've got closer to a full year's worth of data with that excess deaths line being close to zero.
Yea, "totally absolute for sure" was the standard you applied to yourself, I assume, when you talked about how thousands will die for sure in the coming years in perpetuity? The numbers for 2023 are no higher than normal either, and this time I won't bother to dig them up for you just so you can make a shitty accusation about me cropping a screenshot to not include info or something. There is no data that backs the claims you have made. I have provided more than sufficient for mine.
Edit: I guess next time I see a fucking "mOVInG tHe GOOalPoSt!!!" I will take the clue and not fucking bother.
The numbers for 2023 in the 2-3 months you have data for. Look at the rest of the graph, how it starts off lower in January and is higher for the rest of the year. Go back up and look at this graph
and see how covid comes in waves each year, not evenly distributed throughout. Then go back and look at this graph
and see that based on the data we have in the US, deaths per year has stayed above the previous yearly patterns. We don't have all the data over a long period of time because covid hasn't been around for all that long. But from what we can see so far, it kills people. The exact number per year remains to be seen, but from the data we have it's been in the thousands, just in Norway.
Half of the sources you posted actively worked against your own arguments. Maybe you shouldn't bother.
EDIT of my own: After looking at one of your sources (Eurostat)
you can see that January-March was lower than 2016-2019, but it's been on the rise again across the EU, and especially in Norway. Again, you can't just look at one single month and decide that it's representative of everything, everywhere, across all time going forward.