this post was submitted on 26 Feb 2024
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I'm a scientist entering the industry and can't agree more. Too many lies. There are handful of companies that do deliver, but, generally speaking, many businesses seem to bet on the naivety of investors. Some even do it unintentionally because the bar is simply too low.
But here's the thing. I noticed in my life that there are naive people following weak narratives no matter what. These people can't doubt your arguments. And if you do business, these people are apparently the most solid support.
Edit: it's perhaps also true that this majority of investors forces companies to lie by investing almost solely on LLMs
I think there is just too much faith from the current crop of investors in tech start ups, many got hurt in the past by not investing in things after not getting good answers to “ok but how does this make money” or “can this actually do what you’re claiming”.
And larger more established companies like Google and Amazon are happy to feed the hype for a lot of these trends, particularly when all the new start ups are going to be buying stuff from them, so even if the start ups fail because they can’t make money or don’t do what they claim, the big companies still made money selling them server space, computing time, or huge amounts of data. I think investors who hold stakes in the big companies also lean in to the hype for this reason.
Everyone has a pretty good incentive to lean in to the hype, so they do.
Until like 3 months ago, I felt the ChatGPT revolution was going on. Every 10-year plan my colleagues in AI research was actually completed in a few weeks(!) by a completely different research team at the opposite side of the planet. The hype was so high that every expert had same plans resulting in surreal competitions.
After that, the LLM businesses entered the b2b space, with all potential customers asking ChatGPT to search information in their pile of documents. That was the next big thing.
We haven't heard back from the pile of garbage so far...