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China's ship building capacity is greater than the US. They may be able to overwhelm the US Navy in an extended conflict.
That said, China is looking at a demographic cliff from the One Child Policy. Too many old people and not enough young ones to take care of them. If they're going to start a war, it has to be in the next few years or not at all. It's possible the window is already closed.
Imagine what their demographics would look like if they also started a war and killed their young people though.
Not saying they won't do it, and they do currently have an excess of young men specifically, but a country with a population problem isn't in a great place to start a war imo.
They can’t. China is a green-water navy with but-water dreams, but a complete lack of ability to produce the right type of ships for the task. Their missile boats are concerns in littoral areas, but effectively worthless anywhere else, and that’s all they can produce at any appreciable speed. Their carriers aren’t even sea worthy.
Butt-water Dreams. Band name.
That's like saying if we produce enough preschoolers fast enough we might be able to overwhelm that SWAT team.
The US Navy could likely sink their entire fleet without losing anything of significance outside of ammunition and fuel, it doesn't matter how fast they can build such inferior ships.
When it comes to engaging with developed nations the US doesn't do extended conflicts, that's a luxury of third world occupations. We'd take out their Navy and then invade or force a surrender based on extended range weapons.
A war can also solve another problem China has: too many men and too few women. War deaths will not only reduce the man to female ratio, but as in past Chinese wars soldiers will bring home war "brides".
China would need to build ships faster then the US can build antiship missiles. The US has thousands of stealthy Long Range Anti Ship Missiles. The only thing that quantity of ships would do is make a bunch of reefs.