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this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2024
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Afghanistan was fighting an ideological enemy, that won their last war by waiting it out. Waiting out the Soviets worked and the same approached worked on the US coalition forces.
The cartels in Mexico are businesses. They aren't the same type of enemy. You only have to make the business unprofitable for it to stop.
Remove the market in the US for drugs. Legalisation of the okay ones and social support for the harder drugs would reduce the size of the market.
If you improve opportunities for people, these gangs have less recruitment leverage.
The rest is just eroding the financial ability of the gangs. Detailed targeting of their finances would reduce the gangs liquidity and thus ability to operate. Continued military engagement would require them to spend more money of weapons and salaries hurting their bottom line. Capturing more of the members would also limit their ability to operate.
These do require long term commitments of a large amount of resources. If the gangs think they can wait it out 2-20 years it won't work.
In Afghanistan they thought the could win in a few weeks and it would all be sorted. In part they were correct. Afghanistan was defeated before all the troops turned up. It was establishing a long term new order that was the issue. Mexico already has a recognised government that just needs support.
The big issue is this all depends on investing in people and public service. That's the real solution the military action would just be an accelerant. Neoliberals think investing in people isn't necessary. However, the free market sells them drugs and encourages murder in pursuit of selling these drugs. The free markets is in the way here, neoliberalism isn't the answer.