this post was submitted on 03 Dec 2023
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Yes! They responded to my comment before the edit, where I gave the coin example: "I flipped two coins, at least one of them was heads. What is the probability that both of them are heads?"
Before I read their reply, I edited it to the more confusing and infuriating two kids example. It's annoying because it seems like it should be the same as saying "I have two children, and at least one is a boy. What is the probability that I have two boys?" In both the coin case and this one, the answer is 1/3, but when one child answers the door, it's like sliding one quarter out from behind my hand. Now you know a particular (child, coin)'s (sex, face), and the answer is 50% again.