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Yeah, an economic downturn did happen after that. That was 60 years ago. They recovered. This recent downturn? Very little to do with the embargo.
What social programs they had were predicated on massive subsidies from the Soviet Union (and recently and to a lesser degree, Venezuela), and they've failed to adjust for the fact that the Soviet Union has long since fallen. It is fundamentally not a trade imbalance that hampers the Cuban economy at this point. There are livestock laws that are some 60 years old which were meant to be temporary, but have never been revised; there are supply lines which have not been renegotiated since the fall of the SovUnion; government salaries (in an economy very much run by the government still) have not been adjusted for inflation.
This is far deeper and more fundamental than a conflict between the US and Cuba.
I mean, no, even if communism was as bad as red scare types think it is, lifting the embargo wouldn't destroy it. Cuba, as a sovereign country, controls the terms on which trade happens in its own borders. Lifting the embargo doesn't make businesses bloom in the middle of Havana. It just gives Cuba the ability to export directly to the US. Considering the globalization of the modern economy, it's not actually a massive increase in revenue potential. It will help some people, and harm very few, which is why it should be done, but it's not a panacea.
Lifting the embargo is the right thing to do because it's a useless drain on both countries for nothing more than a 60 year-old grudge held by the US political elite, and Cuban exiles. Not because it'll solve Cuba's problems.
The special period was in the 90's. That was a lot more recent than 60 years ago. And yes, they did adjust to the Soviet Union falling after that by trading with a few other countries, like Venezuela or Russia, but none of them have been the super power the USSR was, and they've never rose to the heights that they were at beforehand because the embargo still exists. They've renegotiated supply lines where they can, but the embargo makes it extremely difficult. They've made mistakes and been slow to adapt at times, but it's hard to describe how hard that has been on them (plus Covid ruining their tourism industry). Theres a reason the UN votes overwhelmingly every year to have the US end it. Hell, even Obama lightening the load the slightest amount started to help their economy, which shows a glimmer of the potential, before Trump made it even worse.
They noticeably had some agricultural reforms recently including loosening of what livestock can be used for. Government salaries are extremely low because the country is very poor. They've been able to keep their social programs because they're dedicated to their people more than they are keeping a few people very rich. Compare them to other poor Latin American countries and it becomes even more obvious.
Cuba wouldn't just gain the ability to export to the US, it would change a lot. The US makes it difficult for products that are made with US parts to be imported there from anywhere, they don't let ships that port at Cuba to port in the US, they pressure countries that trade with them, foreign subsidiaries of US countries can't trade with them, and more. Often countries don't find it worth it to navigate the regulations, like when Gofundme canceled funds to Cuba or Cuban people even when for medicine or whatever, during the pandemic. That's why Cuba tends to work with countries that don't mind pissing off the US, like Venezuela or Russia.
Yes, they've made mistakes, and will probably make more if the embargo is ever lifted, but at least they'd have control over their own destiny, instead of the US.
I meant the embargo. I may have been responding too quickly.
Oh I see. You were talking about the US, I was talking the USSR. I get it. It gets harder to reply to these as the posts get longer and longer lol.