this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2023
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My bet is on Google or Anthropic filling the void. This space is moving fast and Altman’s new devision will already be several years behind.
Except Bard sucks and was notably inferior to ChatGPT. Altman brought over a huge chunk of OpenAI employees, it isn't like they're starting over completely from scratch.
They won't be starting over at all since MS has access to the source code and IP according to this article: https://stratechery.com/2023/openais-misalignment-and-microsofts-gain/
Wow, that article was extremely insightful, thanks for linking that. With all of that context, I am suddenly feeling a lot more uneasy about all of this. Microsoft is essentially taking over OpenAI without having to take it over, pretty freaking wild. Additionally, without OpenAI's safety teams providing direct oversight on their tech, one can only hope that Microsoft's AGI progress is slow enough so that regulators get off their asses and get some safety barrier laws in place.
Mostly starting over code wise.
I’ve had to rebuild a thing or two in my day, and building it the second time is always faster, but still, you’ve got to write all the crap over again.
This will undoubtedly be way faster than doing a startup from scratch, but they’re literally starting from a position of having no code checked in at all.
They don't need to start over. Have you been following the open source model progression the last 5-6 months? Those LLMs have made crazy progress in such a short span of time. They can easily take one of those existing models and improve upon them or at least borrow as much as needed. And I also find it hard to believe that Microsoft hasn't been secretly developing their own model(s) at all.
I agree that losing their original egg is definitely a setback, but for all we know this fresh start with Microsoft may allow them to try some new and better ideas they couldn't afford to do at ChatGPT due to the sunk investment costs they had in their original tool.
Anywho, time will tell!
That and re-training the models once the code is rewritten. Presumably MS doesn’t have access to the same training sets (they almost certainly have their own, but we don’t know the breadth or quality by comparison to OpenAIs data sets)