I’m not saying that all, but facts on the ground were that, 2014–2022, Russia had control of Crimea and nobody was going to do anything about that for fear of getting into conflict with Russia. That Crimea even “passed” into Russian hands without much of a fight from the international community is probably what emboldened Putin to go after the rest of Ukraine. What I’m saying is that had he stuck to just that sort of low-level “piecemeal” approach to carving out sections of Ukraine, like what was do e with Crimea, he wouldn’t have gotten nearly the amount of international backlash that he got.

Is Crimea part of Ukraine? Yes, but when it comes to international borders, facts on the ground are what matter in the long-run. Had Putin bided his time, eventually it would’ve just been accepted as fact. Nobody else would’ve ever cared enough to start a war over it. With Putin going for all-out-war though, he’s revealed Russia’s military weakness and facts on the ground have become mutable again, giving us the chance that we’ll hopefully see Crimea come back into Ukraine.