this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2023
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Well, two things about that. In their interviews, Huffman says this decision making is based on Elon Musk at Twitter. I think this implies that Huffman is not basing this on numbers but on ideology and an example set by Musk. It's simply "If I'm a rich tech bro and a richer tech bro does x, I can become a richer tech bro by copying them!"
Secondly, they can crunch the numbers, it doesn't mean they are right, or that they are not subject to change in unexpected ways. Digg V4 was also a calculated decision, but they greviously miscalculated.
To be fair, there was a viable and easy to use alternative (Reddit). And the community was largely tech savvy.
Today there are more computer users, so the average tech literacy is higher, but the tech literacy of the average computer user is lower. People want slick, easy to use, centralised solutions.
I'm not too concerned about this though. I think realistically the fediverse could achieve a critical mass to keep it going, but won't be too large that it becomes just a bunch of noise (like Reddit).
There are fewer computer users, when you look at it by proportion of the population, since most people who aren't into PC gaming, programming, video editing and similar have switched to just using phones and tablets.
That said, there are still plenty enough people to keep the fediverse going, and frankly I don't think it needs to be nearly as unintuitive to the average user as it is. That's a design problem.
Granted, I've thought the same of Linux for ages. It could be as intuitive and user friendly as windows... Except the people who create it are largely nerds who cater to themselves and fellow nerds, and who even take pride in using a relatively inaccessible system, which results in both the absence of basic features (like no color blind mode! In 2023! C'mon) and forums that are mean and condescending to anyone who asks a question (not everyone is like this, of course - there are people who genuinely try to help others get into Linux - but there are enough other people doing the opposite that it's very unpleasant to deal with as a newbie.)
All of which is to say, whether the fediverse can become mainstream or not depends on whether it can overcome its own nerd culture and prioritize ease of use. I hope it will, but Linux hasn't yet, even after all these years (although it is a little better, arguably, at least). We'll see I guess.
I agree, I think Lemmy needs to be more easy to use and accessible if we want it to go mainstream. Us tech nerds tend to grossly overestimate what the average computer user's tech skills are. Here's an interesting study showing that most adults in the world barely know how to use a computer at all: https://www.nngroup.com/articles/computer-skill-levels/ Of course, people who are on Reddit already have a certain degree of tech-savviness, but Lemmy still has a more confusing UI than Reddit.