this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2024
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Technically... maybe. Here's a calculator, EPP+ECR+ID+a chunk of the non-attached and non-assigned might make it over the 50% mark, and then there's renew which has neoliberals in it.
But that's not coalition material as the EPP is not eurosceptic, also, that coalition would reach so far right that a good chunk of the EPP would definitely not be on board with it. The populists might also be opposed on reasons of preferring stoking anti-Brussels sentiment over surveillance, and there's plenty of opportunity for rifts, like the RN saying "The AfD is in favour so we're opposed".
Do note than in the EP factions have fuck all when it comes to faction discipline. There's no whip, all there is is plenty of negotiating.