To comment on my own link, I still think (per comments elsewhere), that right from the get-go this is a 3-way play orchestrated by Putin to get a strong fight-ready leader on his western flank, and north of Ukraine.

I do not think it has much at all to do with a coup or exile.

[–] pinwurm@lemmy.world 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Experts are saying that’s unlikely, though. Why ruin the credibility of the Ministry of Defense if they needed a strong leader? Especially one that’s openly criticized the war to begin with. Pretty bad for morale.

If anything, we’ve learned Putin has a lot less orchestral than expected.

Paramilitary private armies are expensive and unpredictable. And technically illegal under Russian law.

At a time when resources are tight and public trust in government is flaky, it’s makes sense for Putin to consolidate Wagner into the Russian army.

Prigozhin isn’t a brilliant military strategist (to be fair, neither is Shoigu). He’s a businessman who earned $2B through Wagner milking State money. The dissolution of Wagner is the end of that revenue stream, and possibly his own life.

IMO, it seems to me like the mutiny is a last ditch negotiating tactic or emotional outburst as a response to losing his livelihood.

Or.. we’ll learn in the coming months and years that there’s a lot more to this story.

[–] cxtinac@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago

Fair enough, I couldn't disagree at all.

Would be wonderful to sneak a peak at a historical analysis from ++50yrs: either it's Putin's masterstroke, or he's struggling to tamp down prima donna Prigohzin with his buddy Lukashenko's help. Occam's razor would certainly point to the latter.

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