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The original was posted on /r/armenia by /u/ar_david_hh on 2024-09-25 20:35:36+00:00.
Original Title: Research: This is how the unblocking of Armenia-Turkey border will affect the price of goods in Armenia \ Pashinyan presents Crossroads of Peace to Erdogan \ Petition to fire Justice Minister \ Economy \ and...
7 minutes of Armenia coverage in Transcaucasian Telegraph's Sep/25/2024 edition.
Pashinyan and Erdogan met in New York, exchanged gifts
The two discussed the implementation of the steps taken earlier towards the normalization of AM-TR relations. They also spoke about the AM-AZ peace efforts.
Erdogan said there has been significant progress in AM-TR relations without preconditions.
Pashinyan gifted Erdogan a brochure of his Crossroads of Peace regional communication unblocking project. Erdogan gave Pashinyan a book authored by him.
... from an interview with the editor of Istambul-based Jamanak newspaper Ara Gochunyan
REPORTER: What can you tell us about the Pashinyan-Erdogan meeting by judging from the official statements?
GOCHUNYAN: In line with the normalization efforts, the two capitals released almost identical statements, but this time adding that they are willing to give a new impetus to the efforts. If everything goes according to plan in the near future, a significant amount of trust has accumulated between the parties for the two leaders to increase the normalization activity by one level, or two move to the implementation phase.
This is also the first time that after an Erdogan-Pashinyan meeting, the Armenian side released a statement that mentions the Crossroads of Peace. This is extremely important because in the past we were accustomed to seeing Azerbaijan pushing for the Zangezur Corridor and Turkey always siding with Azerbaijan's narrative.
In the past, Turkey's rhetoric on the Zangezur Corridor did not differ from Azerbaijan's. Now Pashinyan is "familiarizing" Erdogan with the Crossroads of Peace. Today Armenia feels less stressed while dealing with Turkey, and feels less threatened by Turkey regarding Armenia's sovereignty over any communication routes passing through Armenia. Pashinyan is displaying more courage, and this is a sign that Armenia has more room to breathe.
REPORTER: So, do you disagree that Turkey wants Azerbaijan to have a Russian-controlled corridor through Armenia?
GOCHUNYAN: Russia is doing everything possible to "return" to the region by controlling a corridor, but Turkey has its own interests. Why would Turkey want Russia to control it? Large countries like Turkey prefer to deal with smaller partners, so why would Turkey want this vitally important link with Central Asia to be negotiated with Russia if they can reach an agreement only with Armenia, a "smaller" country? The available information suggests that Turkey is okay with or without Russia's presence.
source, source, video, source, source,
how will the unblocking of Armenia's border with Turkey affect the price of goods in Armenia?
Researchers at ACSES studied the markets in Armenia (Yerevan) and Turkey (Kars) to understand whether Turkish goods would "flood" the Armenian market under equal playing conditions.
... Turkish products are already sold in Armenia
In the structure of Armenia's commodity imports, Turkey played a relatively significant role in 2008-2011 by exceeding 6% in 2008. By 2023 it was only 2% with $337M, although that was the highest dollar amount.
... annual imports of Turkish products and its share
1995: $3M
2005: $67M (3.7%)
2010: $210M (5.6%)
2015: $137M (4.2%)
2020: $231M (5.1%)
2021: $73M (1.4%)
2022: $263M (3.0%)
2023: $337M (2.6%)
2024: $154M (1.5%) (first half)
... what Turkish products is Armenia importing today?
16% of imports are clothing items
14% water boilers [Baxi?]
5% plastic items
4% aluminum items
4% vehicles
4% fuel, oil
4% recording devices, electronics
4% wood items
4% fruits and nuts
3% soap, candle, plastilin
3% furniture, bedding
35% other items
... Trade Compatibility Index (TCI) shows the extent to which Armenia and Turkey can satisfy each other's import/export needs
For agricultural goods, Armenia's index for satisfying Turkey's needs is 12.0. Turkey's index for satisfying Armenia's needs is 39.7.
For all products, Armenia's index is 23.5, Turkey's is 39.5.
RESEARCHERS: Although the findings show that Armenia has very little agricultural potential to satisfy the Turkish market needs, Turkey's ability to satisfy Armenia's needs is also not big; Turkey's 39.7 score is significantly below 50.
In other words, there is some compatibility in the agricultural goods that Turkey can export that Armenia needs, but this compatibility is not strong. We observe a similar picture for all products, not just agricultural.
... prices of 50 agricultural products were examined in Turkey and Armenia to calculate and compare the price of Turkish products if they are imported and sold in Armenia
Product: Current price in Armenia (price difference for the consumer if you import it from Turkey and pay customs duties)
Onion ֏295 (+6%) [meaning the onion costs ֏295 in Armenia, while the same onion imported from Turkey would cost 6% more, meaning the Armenian product would be more competitive]
Tomato ֏795 (-38%) [meaning Armenian consumers would pay 38% less for tomato]
Cucumber ֏465 (-9%)
Potato ֏215 (+67%)
Carrot ֏285 (+207%)
Cabbage ֏235 (-18%)
Cauliflower ֏1225 (-50%)
Eggplant ֏945 (-59%)
Garlic ֏1890 (+32%)
Green pepper ֏2150 (-75%)
Lettuce ֏200 (+104%)
Apple ֏585 (-9%)
Pear ֏1450 (-38%)
Strawberry ֏2390 (-44%)
Mandarin ֏795 (-80%)
Orange ֏695 (-57%)
Beef ֏3490 (+148%)
Goat meat ֏4600 (+90%)
Chicken meat ֏1590 (+37%)
Fish frozen ֏1690 (+92%)
Milk ֏470 (+39%)
Sour cream ֏1560 (-26%)
Cheese ֏2400 (+53%)
Butter ֏4650 (+33%)
Sausage ֏3690 (+2%)
Kielbasa ֏3850 (+143%)
Eggs, 30 pieces ֏2100 (-36%)
Flour ֏218 (-3%)
Veggie oil ֏960 (-17%)
... TLDR
21 of 50 agricultural goods imported from Turkey will be less competitive than their local counterparts, in part because of high customs duties imposed by EAEU.
For 29 of 50 agricultural goods, Armenian consumers would pay less for Turkish products, sometimes 2-5 times less.
... the research highlights multiple ways Armenia can protect its internal market if necessary without self-isolation
It lists examples used by the US, Japan, EU, South Korea, etc.
... researchers conclude
• Turkey would have a limited ability to "invade" the Armenian market.
• 29 of 50 Turkish agricultural goods, if no restrictions are imposed, would cause significant issues for Armenian producers in the medium term, while benefitting Armenian consumers with their low prices.
• Armenia has enough international and internal tools to protect its market. Examples: Seasonal customs duties under EAEU; direct tariffs on Turkish goods without waiting for the approval of others, presumably EAEU; Armenia's internal legislation allows the consumer protection agency to target monopolies or companies that have a monopoly-like influence on the market.
Armenia's economic activity index in January-August of 2024:
+9%
the government does not plan to nationalize the power grid operator ՀԷՑ despite complaints of mismanagement by the company: a ranking member of the r...
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